Turkish leaders are acting with caution not to hurt the country’s vital interests and harm Turkish-American relations. However, neither the Americans nor the Iraqi Kurds should read this as a sign of weakness. This would be a vital mistake that would force Erdogan to take unwanted radical actions.
Turkey faces important decisions and actions on two important areas where mistakes could prove fatal for Turkish interests.
One is the reaction to the passage of the Armenian genocide resolution by the U.S. House of Representatives which has now been sent to the House for a vote.
The other is the action Turkey is preparing against the PKK in northern Iraq.
There are already mistaken views in the United States that we are bluffing and that we may not carry out our threats.
U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi says Turkey has been threatening action against the U.S. for the past several years if an Armenian resolution is passed and says she does not expect any serious action. She and her colleagues expect Ankara to make a lot of noise and then just accept the facts of life…
People like Pelosi seem to think that just because Turkey made many threats but could not do anything on Kirkuk when the Kurds occupied the city it in 2002 in an example for Turkish impotence.
However, they are dead wrong.
Turkey does what it has to even at the cost of suffering an American arms embargo. Pelosi and friends have to remember the Turkish military intervention on Cyprus in 1974.
They have to see that the Armenian issue is not just a simple process of recognizing an act of genocide committed by some people against the others in 1915. They have to see that the recognition of such an act will allow the Armenians to hold the Turkish Republic accountable to what the Ottoman Turks allegedly did a century ago and will make it pay economically and politically. The Armenians are after blood not just the recognition of their historical mishaps.
So Turkey will put up a fight and if necessary Turkish-American ties will suffer.
This is where our leaders are rightfully acting with caution. This should not be seen as a sign of weakness. Turkish leaders want to show they mean business but they also do not want to create an irreparable situation. Pelosi and her colleagues should see this and appreciate it. Turkish Ambassador Nabi Sensoy has been called to Ankara for consultations but he has not been “recalled” permanently. He is expected to return to Washington before Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits the U.S. But no one should make any mistakes that the Turkish government would be obliged to take strong measures against U.S. interests if the resolution actually passes the House. Pelosi says she is set to do this… Let us hope she too sees the light because Turks will be in no mood to appreciate her whims.
On the PKK Turks are in no mood to listen to ifs and buts from the Americans or the Iraqis. The PKK is seeing this and is further escalating its violent campaign to further antagonize the Turkish public and pill up the pressure on the government to act. This way PKK hopes Turkey will enter northern Iraq with a massive force and further strain its relations with the West and perhaps even stall its full membership process in the EU.
We feel Turkey has to take steps to convince the Iraqi Kurdish leaders not to allow the PKK to feel at home in northern Iraq and thus pacify the terrorists. This can be done through friendly persuasion and economic pressures rather than by military force.
Iraqi Kurdish leaders have to understand that Turkey is not bluffing and Turkish leaders do not want blood but they do want results and will be pushed even to order a military incursion if sides do not understand the urgency of the current situation.
